Market Update: March 16, 2026

Geopolitics, energy, and data converged to deliver a turbulent week for markets, reminding investors that risk is rarely linear.

Headline U.S. inflation remained contained but showed signs of reacceleration, with CPI up 0.3% month over month and core PCE rising 0.4%, keeping underlying pressures above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, prior quarter GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.7%, underscoring a backdrop of moderating growth even before the latest oil shock. Housing was a bright spot, with starts and existing sales improving as affordability stabilized at the margin.

Markets, however, were dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock. Oil prices swung in a wide range and revisited levels near or above 100 dollars per barrel, despite a historic 400million barrel release from strategic reserves. Equity indices in the U.S. finished modestly lower, while foreign markets, more sensitive to energy supply risk and a stronger dollar, saw deeper declines. Volatility spiked, with the VIX moving well into “stress” territory above 25, reflecting a decisive shift to risk off positioning.

Within equities, only energy managed gains, while cyclical and rate sensitive sectors lagged on concerns that higher oil will reignite inflation just as growth cools. Bonds also sold off as yields rose on renewed inflation fears and heavy issuance, leaving floating rate credit as one of the few pockets of resilience.

For long-term investors, this environment argues for disciplined diversification, an emphasis on quality and liquidity, and a renewed appreciation for the role of real assets as potential shock absorbers during geopolitical crises.

The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.  All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.  Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.